Hadi Rahmani Fazli; Abbas Arabmazar
Abstract
This study investigates the process of budget allocation to provinces of Iran based on two set of factors of 1- major macro provincial indicators and 2-oil price volatility based on stochastic differential equations and stochastic optimal control framework during the period of 2003 to 2014. In this regard, ...
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This study investigates the process of budget allocation to provinces of Iran based on two set of factors of 1- major macro provincial indicators and 2-oil price volatility based on stochastic differential equations and stochastic optimal control framework during the period of 2003 to 2014. In this regard, with calculation of optimal share of provinces in total country budget based on macro indicators data for year 2011, the effect of stochastic oil price on dynamic budget allocation is studied. The dynamic analysis of oil price during 2003 to 2014 indicates a volatile trend with jumps in oil price time series in some sub-periods. Accordingly, different models of stochastic differential equations and stochastic optimal control for modeling oil price and petroleum budgets allocation in different years are proposed. The results show that the share of the provincial budget depends on the parameters that determine the behavior of the oil price time series. So that, with an increased average growth rate of oil prices, the provincial budget share increases over time. In addition, an increase in volatility of oil prices and acceleration in the velocity of oil price mean-reversion, reduce the optimal share of provincial oil budgets over time. Also, based on the results of the simulation model for provincial data in year 2011, the optimal share of provincial oil budgets has dynamic and stochastic behavior and it is formed based on the behavior of oil price time series.
Abbas Arabmazar; Ali Akbar Bajelan
Volume 8, Issue 30 , October 2008, , Pages 41-69
Abstract
This study estimates optimal commodity tax rates regarding efficiency and social justice. A many- person Ramsey rule and Bergson – Samuelson social welfare function are used for estimating optimal tax rates. We need to estimate price elasticities of commodities before computing optimal tax rates. ...
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This study estimates optimal commodity tax rates regarding efficiency and social justice. A many- person Ramsey rule and Bergson – Samuelson social welfare function are used for estimating optimal tax rates. We need to estimate price elasticities of commodities before computing optimal tax rates. These elasticites come from estimation of Almost Ideal Demand System based on household expenditure data, in urban area,s over the period of 1993-2005 and 10 cost deciles. The Almost Ideal Demand System has been estimated by using Panel Data approach. The contrast between efficiency and equity is examined by including a parameter called ''Rate of inequality aversion parameter'' in social welfare function. Optimal tax rates are computed from Lagrange – approach solution of nonlinear systems under alternative assumptions about rate of inequality aversion parameter and fixed Tax Revenues.
The Results show that when inequality aversion parameter equals zero, optimal tax of different commodities will be equal. Otherwise, they are different. The larger the parameter, the greater the difference. Tax rates on commodities which have large share in expenditure of lower deciles decrease while tax rates on other commodities increase. Also, with increase of the parameter, marginal cost of the social welfare decreases.
